The Aviation Safety Network (ASN) reported a total of 10 fatal accidents (http://bit.ly/2EnNV4S) in 2017, resulting in 44 on-board fatalities and 35 on the ground. Five of those were cargo flights, while the remaining five were non-jet passenger flights. These numbers result in 2017 being the safest year ever for commercial aviation with no scheduled passenger airline accidents.

The table below gives an overview of the numbers as published by various aviation organisations. The (big) differences originate from the methods used for data analysis (e.g. some exclude cargo aircraft or helicopters). This shows that correct referencing is critical.

No room for complacency

Commenting on the reports, ICAO secretary general Fang Liu said, “These results speak to the commitment and cooperation of the governments, operators, and professional men and women worldwide who have worked so hard together to achieve them.” At the same time To70 warns (http://to70.com): “With so few fatal accidents to examine, it is worth remembering that there were also several quite serious non-fatal accidents in 2017. There is no room for complacency. Civil aviation, while an industry with a very high level of safety, does still carry very large risks.”

More hours, more safety?

The US Airline Pilots Association (ALPA) claims that a major reason for this achievement is the 2013 FAA pilot qualification regulation (1500hr PIC minimum). Although there haven’t been any fatal accidents involving a US commercial airline since 2010, some voices claim that there is no relationship between the 1500-hr. rule and the present safety record”. Bill Voss (former FSF (http://www.flightsafety.org) president) states that the rule is “a distraction from the real question of how we train to achieve the level of competencies in flight crews”. BeCA tends to agree with this vision. Over the last 3 years, neither were there any fatal accidents by European aircraft operators (except for the Germanwings which can hardly be considered ‘an accident’) and here the experience requirement for FirstOfficers is still 250 hr.

Other threats

The increasing demand for capacity might further complicate airspace structure and require even closer monitoring of navigation systems to comply with ever more precise performance based departures and arrivals (http://bit.ly/2HauZ7d) as well as 4D trajectories (http://bit.ly/2EopV1C). New technology might help, but also carries the inherent risk of adding complexity and training requirements. Furthermore, additional automation might induce erosion of basic hands-on flying skills. Another – often hidden – threat is created by combining increasing commercial pressure and performance based oversight. We have seen the dangers of ‘self-regulation’ in other sectors (finance, oil & gas), but the question remains: did we learn anything? Another pressing issue remains dangerous goods. Although well regulated, there have been numerous incidents involving lithium batteries. The recent change in screening dangerous goods in checked passenger baggage should not result in a higher risk of these items being loaded in the cargo hold of commercial aircraft. Last but not least, the efficient and safe integration of UAV operations remains a high-priority topic. Several studies (http://bit.ly/2tTJjJs) have shown the risks and possibly catastrophic consequences of drone strikes.

How to manage?

With ICAO (http://bit.ly/2EjnHw5) and IATA guidance (http://bit.ly/2nWllgv) available since 2013, Evidence Based Training (EBT) is maturing and is supported by EASA (http://bit.ly/2o2FdxU). The keyword is ‘resilience’ i.e. being able to cope with unforeseen circumstances. Most Belgian companies have implemented EBT or are in the process of approving their EBT procedures. BeCA applauds the development of EBT, its greater emphasis on soft-skills and recommends both airlines and authorities to maximise efficiency of their flight training (e.g. by confidential recording of simulator sessions for debriefing or conducting simulator FDM reviews).

Since the Colgan Air and Air France 447 crashes (both in 2009), the problem of ‘manual skill fade’ has become recognised as a real hazard and Upset Recovery Training (UPRT) (http://bit.ly/2ysAucw) has become mandatory. While hand-flying during commercial operations still sparks lively discussions at international conferences, Belgian airlines understand that (well-judged) practice helps to mitigate the associated risks. BeCA commends flight operation and training departments on this approach.

The efficiency-thoroughness trade-offs (ETTOs) (http://bit.ly/2emPcu7) all pilots make under commercial pressure need to be reported. This can only be done in a Just Culture environment. BeCA continues its efforts on implementing the required structures both at company and national level to enable inhibited safety reporting. BeCA urges companies to invest sufficient resources in feedback and follow-up; without those any reporting system will die a certain death. On the other hand, we call upon you – as a pilot – to report. Under Performance Based Oversight (http://bit.ly/2nUZsy5), more than ever the saying counts: “if it isn’t reported, it didn’t happen.”

Clear guidelines and a coordinated approach between airlines, airports and authorities must result in adequate screening of checked baggage. BeCA acknowledges the fact that information on screening might be sensitive (due to security reasons), but pilots must be assured that all measures are taken to ensure no inextinguishable Lithium-fires can occur in their cargo hold.

Aviation safety (as measured by counting negatives) is at an all time high. But that doesn’t mean the battle is won. With so many dynamic variables, disaster is just around the corner. True safety management requires a ‘chronic unease’ (http://bit.ly/2BWJpbX). BeCA calls upon airlines and authorities to use a holistic approach to any proposed changes. Whether it is tailwind in BRU or the application of EU 261/2004, safety should always be considered as a primary factor.

References

• Carey, B. (2018) U.S. Experts Split On Drivers Of Airline Safety Record – http://bit.ly/2EBtalr
• Flotteau, J. (2017) IATA sees encouraging trends in airline safety – http://bit.ly/2nY55vB
• Moores, V. (2018) Reports: 2017 was aviation’s safest year yet – http://bit.ly/2DVwMLc
• IATA (2017) Safety Report 2016 – http://bit.ly/2G4paHd
• Airbus (2017) A Statistical Analysis of Commercial Aviation Accidents 1958-2016 – http://bit.ly/2nZCxC7
• EASA (2017) Annual Safety Review 2017 – http://bit.ly/2EjJMuI
• Boeing (2017) Statistical Summary of Commercial Jet Airplane Accidents Worldwide Operations 1959 – 2016 – http://bit.ly/1Si07Pu
• ICAO (2017) Safety Report 2017 Ed. – http://bit.ly/2HbDi2y